That was the lead in a Reuters story this morning saying, "health plans expect at least 20% growth in customers and in some states anticipate more than a doubling in sign-ups" from the 2015 Obamacare open-enrollment.
Well they better do a hell of a lot better than that!
The CBO has estimated that 13 million people will ultimately be covered in the Obamacare insurance exchanges in 2015.
The administration recently announced they had 7.3 million covered as of mid-August.
Actually, I expect they will have closer to 6.5 million at year-end based upon the reports of monthly attrition I have had from carriers.
7.3 million or 6.5 million, the administration has to about double the current enrollment to stay on track toward getting a sustainable pool by the time the Obamacare "3Rs" insurance company reinsurance provisions expire at the end of 2016––a sustainable pool is typically considered to be about three-quarters of an eligible group.
The Reuters article goes on to talk about a number of very small insurers, some the new co-ops, that got little in the way of enrollment in 2014 and have now cut their rates in order to gain market share––not afraid to so because of the reinsurance provisions that absorb most losses. Reuters says these plans are optimistic that they could double their customer base. Well twice nothing is still very little.
Carriers increasing their Obamacare enrollment by 20%?
That is about a fifth of what they need in 2015 to get this thing to "clear the tower."
Reporters have never been very good at math.
Selasa, 18 September 2018
Obamacare: Death By A Thousand Votes?
We didn't see a Republican tide on election night.
We saw a Republican tsunami.
A year after Obamacare went into effect and Democrats said people would come to support it voters gave one Republican candidate after another, who made Obamacare a big part of each of their campaigns, one victory after another.
So, how will the Republicans use their convincing result on Obamacare?
Republicans will not have the votes to override any presidential vetoes nor will they have the 60 Senate votes needed for full repeal. But the Republican Senate can now pass lots of anti-Obamacare legislation using budget rules. Remember, the Supreme Court said the individual mandate penalty is a "tax." The health insurance company "3Rs" reinsurance provisions are revenue related. The Obama administration's recently using regulation to take the caps off the reinsurance kegiatan is clearly a spending item. The medical device tax could well be a bipartisan target, as would the employer mandate. And, so on.
The even bigger House majority will be happy to go along with the Senate's forcing Democrats to vote on one unpopular piece of Obamacare after another––and then forcing Obama to veto them.
Obamacare will not be repealed or fundamentally changed in the next Congress.
But the Republicans now have the opportunity to prepare the table for 2017––so long as they don't overplay their hand.
What this election result has guaranteed us is that the Obamacare debate is not over.
We saw a Republican tsunami.
A year after Obamacare went into effect and Democrats said people would come to support it voters gave one Republican candidate after another, who made Obamacare a big part of each of their campaigns, one victory after another.
So, how will the Republicans use their convincing result on Obamacare?
Republicans will not have the votes to override any presidential vetoes nor will they have the 60 Senate votes needed for full repeal. But the Republican Senate can now pass lots of anti-Obamacare legislation using budget rules. Remember, the Supreme Court said the individual mandate penalty is a "tax." The health insurance company "3Rs" reinsurance provisions are revenue related. The Obama administration's recently using regulation to take the caps off the reinsurance kegiatan is clearly a spending item. The medical device tax could well be a bipartisan target, as would the employer mandate. And, so on.
The even bigger House majority will be happy to go along with the Senate's forcing Democrats to vote on one unpopular piece of Obamacare after another––and then forcing Obama to veto them.
Obamacare will not be repealed or fundamentally changed in the next Congress.
But the Republicans now have the opportunity to prepare the table for 2017––so long as they don't overplay their hand.
What this election result has guaranteed us is that the Obamacare debate is not over.