Trying To Make Sense Of The Covered California Numbers

I've read a number of reports in recent days gushing over the progress Covered California is making leading the nation in signing up people for Obamacare.

But, I am having trouble understanding how the numbers should make anyone gush with enthusiasm.

Covered California, the state health insurance exchange, has a their estimate)––80% of them by December 31.

The only place a Californian can buy a policy with a subsidy is on the Covered California state exchange.

So, it would certainly seem that the only way those people eligible for a subsidy can continue their coverage and get a subsidy is to sign-up on the California health insurance exchange––80% of them by December 23.

So, if only the canceled policyholders who are subsidy eligible replace their canceled policies Covered California will be well on their way to making their 2014 enrollment goal. Doesn't sound like much of a stretch goal for them.

Besides the 1 million who have lost their policies because of cancellation, Covered California has estimated that 5.3 million Californians are uninsured and eligible to purchase Medicaid or private coverage on the state exchange.

Covered California is spending $250 million in federal grant money on a two-year "outreach" campaign to get people signed up. Covered California has been awarded a total of $910 million in federal grants to fund its operations and outreach. New York, the second highest state, has received $400 million.

Through mid-November, Covered California has enrolled about 80,000 people. Its director characterized his state's enrollment saying, "We're seeing much larger numbers than we expected."

The Washington Post, in a story headlined "There's a 'November Surge' in Obamacare Enrollments," reported, "California led the bunch [state-run exchanges]; the state's enrollments have grown steadily in November and now account for nearly a full third of all health law sign-ups. The state has had its strongest two weeks of enrollment this month."

So, let's summarize:

• California has 5.3 million uninsured with at least half exchange eligible.
• California is cancelling another 1 million people of which Covered California has estimated hundreds of thousands will qualify for a subsidy they can only get if they go to Covered California. At least 80% need to act by December 23 to avoid losing their coverage.
• The state is spending $250 million in federal money to get people signed up––dramatically more than any other state.
• The Covered California goal is to sign-up 500,000 to 700,000 subsidy eligible people by March 31.

Why should we be so impressed with Covered California because they have signed-up 80,000 people so far? Or, even that their goal is to sign-up 500,000 to 700,000 of the state's 6.3 million people who are uninsured or having their insurance canceled?

Looking at these numbers, if they don't have well more than 500,000 people signed up by December 31, I would have to think the number of uninsured in California would have grown.

Am I missing something here?

The December 1 Obamacare Relaunch––Nobody Can Spin The Main Event

From 27,000 enrollments in October to a reported 100,000 enrollments in November, the Affordable Care Act's website is apparently working better and getting more people signed up.

But is it fixed well enough to handle the expected wave of at least many hundreds of thousands of people eager to get guarantee issue health insurance for the first time or replace a canceled policy by January 1?

Here are some of the press reports covering the December 1 HealthCare.gov relaunch:

• Bloomberg reporting on a navigator's experience: "It's still kind of glitchy. Now it just kicked me out. It went back to the front page. I've been here all afternoon and it's been like that."
• Miami Herald: Long waits, error messages, unresponsiveness. Hallmarks of the troubled launch of the Health Insurance Marketplace at healthcare.gov continued to stymie South Florida residents and counselors trying to access the website on Monday––more than two months after the October 1 launch, and despite the government's self-imposed deadline of Nov. 30 for the system to function smoothly for the 'vast majority of Americans."
• Los Angles Times: "The Obama administration's overhauled healthcare website got off to a bumpy relaunch Monday as a rush of consumers caused an uptick in errors and forced the administration to put thousands of shoppers on the HealthCare.gov site on hold. 
• Ezra Klein, Washington Post: "Of course, that means the site still suffers a disastrous outage rate." And, "We have no idea whether the 200 fixes left on the list are really important ones, or really difficult ones. The repair job is likely proceeding quickly enough to protect Obamacare from the most severe threat to its launch: Democrat-backed legislation unwinding the individual mandate or other crucial portions of the law."

And then there is the backroom. The administration apparently decided that it was more important to fix the front-end of the system before the back-end was fixed. Do they think that big customer service issues come January, if the "834" back-end enrollment problems are not fixed by then, will be blamed on the insurance industry and not the administration?

• Associated Press: "Private insurers complain that much of the enrollment information they've gotten on individual consumers is practically useless. It is corrupted by errors, duplication or garbles. Efforts to fix the underlying problems are underway, but the industry isn't happy with the progress and is growing increasingly concerned."

As I have said before, the Obama administration is likely in the midst of a four month project to properly fix and test this system. It will likely be at least late January or early February before not just HealthCare.gov but the other key information systems supporting the new law are built and repaired to just minimal standards.

Maybe the best news for HealthCare.gov is that you can finally look at actual plans and prices for your age and family in your community without having to open an account and sign-in. Finally, people can easily see for themselves just what kind of plan is available for them and at what pre-subsidy cost. They can also access a chart telling them if they are eligible for a subsidy or reduced cost sharing but not calculate it for themselves.

My definition of a fixed HealthCare.gov is a site that encourages enrollment rather than discourages it. Time will tell––but only about three weeks time before the December 23 enrollment deadline for having coverage on January 1.

Maybe, however haltingly, we are finally getting to the main event. The day when people can get a good idea for themselves just what value Obamacare presents for them. The premiums, the deductibles and co-pays, as well as the provider networks. Not just the people who are now uninsured or have had their policy canceled, but also those who don't need Obamacare today but think they might someday. All of them voters focused on finding out for themselves what this Obamacare thing really is.

Nobody can spin the main event.