Jumat, 19 Oktober 2018

Obamacare Small Ball––The Republicans Are Winning The Battle Over The Big Idea

Last week the President waded directly into the national debate over "ObamaCare" by calling a big media event in the East Room of the White House to talk about the $100 rebates a small percentage of potentially eligible people are getting under the new health law.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell countered, "If you’re a family in Covington facing a $2,100 premium increase under ObamaCare, then, really, what would you rather have: a check for $100 or so, or a way to avoid the $2,100 premium increase in the first place?”

NPR's Julie Rovner had a story on Friday––" The Medicaid Controversy––The Republican Governors Should Put Up or Shut Up

So, while the Republicans consistently win on the Big Idea––albeit in almost entirely negative terms because they don't have a comprehensive alternative to "ObamaCare," Democrats play small ball.

Perhaps Democrats can't get past small ball because The Affordable Care Act ("ObamaCare") itself is small ball.

It is not health care reform––it is an attempt at health insurance reform at a time when all of our health care system––Medicare, Medicaid, and private health insurance––is not sustainable.

"ObamaCare" is also lots of pages of health insurance market micro management––small ball if there ever was any. Now, the administration is tying itself up like a pretzel trying to figure out how to make it all work with time running out. All the while individuals, small employers and large employers are fretting over how the new law will impact them.

It shouldn't be a surprise that this administration, now buried in the minutia of injecting an extraordinary amount of micro management into a sixth of our economy, would think a $100 rebate for someone already paying thousands of dollars in health insurance premiums would be a major accomplishment.

I opposed "ObamaCare" in the first place because I thought it was a clumsy attempt at insurance reform and certainly not health care reform. Most importantly, I thought it was wrong to make promises––"The Affordable Care Act"––the law was never designed to keep.

Now the administration is in the simpulan phase of trying to convince people this was all a good idea.

But, just exactly what was the idea?

Oregon Delays Key Element Of Insurance Exchange––Good For Them!

Five years from now no one will remember if their "Obamacare" health insurance exchange launched on October 1.

The state-run Oregon health insurance exchange, Cover Oregon, recently announced it will be delaying web access to the its new "Obamacare" health insurance offerings two to four weeks later than the scheduled October 1 launch date.

People will be able to begin signing up for health insurance on October 1 but only through participating insurance agents and community partners. Covered Oregon said they wanted more time to "debug" the website before opening it up to the general population.

For months, we've all been speculating about whether the insurance exchanges, state and federal, will be ready on time. Given the complexity of the new exchanges and given that the Obama administration didn't finalize key regulations until just after the November 2012 election, being ready on time has turned out to be a huge challenge.

It strikes me that Oregon's decision to delay the online exchange for consumers until they are certain things are in good shape is the prudent thing to do.

While worrying about whether this will all launch on time has been the source of lots of speculation, the thing I most worry about is whether the exchanges are going to get a good cross-section of people––that enough healthy will sign-up in order to offset the costs of the sick.

If the launch is an administrative mess, it is likely that sick people desperate for health insurance will be sure to get signed-up no matter what the hassle factor while healthy people who don't now need coverage will delay rather than deal with the administrative problems they will be hearing about. Why wait on hold for long periods of time or deal with an impossible web portal if you don't really need the insurance right now? It is already hard to get healthy people to buy health insurance without putting unnecessary road blocks in their way.

The biggest long-term threat the Affordable Care Act's insurance exchanges face is that far more sick people than healthy people sign up leading to even higher and higher prices in subsequent years and ultimately the risk of an underwriting "death spiral."

Getting off to a bad start is not an option. Just how many people sign up in the first year, and how healthy or sick they tend to be, will be critical. A poor outcome in 2014 will require insurance companies to raise the rates even higher the next year. That in turn will likely hurt the ability of the pool to improve the following year as costs are even higher, and so on until the "Obamacare" insurance pool looks like the current bad underwriting outcome in states like New York or New Jersey that suffered a similar long-term "death spiral" deterioration in their state-run health insurance pools.

Hitting the October 1 launch date for "Obamacare" should be a minor consideration compared to making sure nothing happens to discourage as many people as possible from signing up––particularly healthy people who don't have an urgent need for health insurance.

It is good to see that the leadership in Oregon understands that where they are in five years is a lot more important than where they are on October 1, and had the courage to announce the best decision.