Repeal And Replace Obamacare: How Will All Of This Sort Itself Out?
Minggu, 19 Agustus 2018
Obamacare,
Repeal and Replace Obamacare,
Republican Plan to Replace Obamacare,
Trump's Obamacare Replacement,
Trumpcare
Edit
Will the Republicans Follow Through on Their Promise to Repeal Obamacare?
Yes.
You have probably been reading press stories that bring into question whether or not Republicans will actually keep their campaign promise to "repeal" the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In fact, there is much discussion going on among Congressional Republicans about repealing key funding elements of the ACA as part of a budget process prior to having a replacement ready to pass the Congress.
But, they will defund the core elements of Obamacare sooner rather than later on their way to replacement. They have to. Repealing Obamacare as a first priority was a core campaign promise. If Congressional Republicans and President Trump fail to do this they will suffer a precipitous drop in credibility with their base.
Do Republicans Have a Replacement Plan?
Yes––at least a pretty specific outline for what they would do.
Speaker Paul Ryan's "Better Way" outline, last year's very similar Burr, Hatch, Upton bill (my analysis here), and a number of other similar Republican proposals lay out a clear path for a preferred Republican alternative. Donald Trump said this weekend that his plan, likely very similar to these, will be released once his new Secretary of HHS is confirmed.
These plans share the same key elements but have not yet been put in legislative form or been "scored." Just exactly what the new subsidy/tax credit scheme would look like and how it would impact consumers compared to what we now have in Obamacare is the biggest unknown.
The duduk masalah isn't that they don't have a plan. The duduk masalah is that Republicans don't have a plan that will garner the required 60 votes in the U.S. Senate to become law. With 52 Republicans, they will need at least eight Democrats to join them. There simply are not the eight Democrats, or a guarantee that all 52 Republicans can be counted on, to ensure something like the general Republican replacement outline can become law.
Does This Mean That Republicans Will Retreat on Repeal Until Such Time as They Can Secure the Needed Democratic Support?
No.
First, Republicans are now in so deep on the repeal promise they can't retreat and maintain credibility with their Republican/Trump base.
Second, the reality is that Washington, DC wouldn't be able to find a bipartisan route to get past gridlock on such a complex and politically charged issue as Obamacare without facing hard deadlines for replacement.
Those that argue that Republicans should first have the replacement plan in place before proceeding make the assumption that without the imperative repeal/defund would create the two sides would be able to come to a bipartisan solution. In this Washington, DC? I just don't see that happening.
But Hasn't the Republican "Repeal and Replace" Strategy Now Put Them on the Defensive?
Yes.
Republicans are clearly losing the messaging battle with Democrats now on the offensive. A lack of a clear message about replacement creates a huge information gap that is easy to fill with bleak assessments for how the health insurance market will quickly collapse in the wake of Republican defunding.
Right now, Democrats are effectively, but disingenuously, arguing that repeal without a replacement will lead to millions of people losing their insurance. Disingenuous because Republicans have never intended to repeal without a seamless transition to replacement. But the Democratic arguments just had gasoline poured on them by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) My follow-up post at CNBC.com deals with how the two sides could come to a bipartisan compromise.
Yes.
You have probably been reading press stories that bring into question whether or not Republicans will actually keep their campaign promise to "repeal" the Affordable Care Act (ACA). In fact, there is much discussion going on among Congressional Republicans about repealing key funding elements of the ACA as part of a budget process prior to having a replacement ready to pass the Congress.
But, they will defund the core elements of Obamacare sooner rather than later on their way to replacement. They have to. Repealing Obamacare as a first priority was a core campaign promise. If Congressional Republicans and President Trump fail to do this they will suffer a precipitous drop in credibility with their base.
Do Republicans Have a Replacement Plan?
Yes––at least a pretty specific outline for what they would do.
Speaker Paul Ryan's "Better Way" outline, last year's very similar Burr, Hatch, Upton bill (my analysis here), and a number of other similar Republican proposals lay out a clear path for a preferred Republican alternative. Donald Trump said this weekend that his plan, likely very similar to these, will be released once his new Secretary of HHS is confirmed.
These plans share the same key elements but have not yet been put in legislative form or been "scored." Just exactly what the new subsidy/tax credit scheme would look like and how it would impact consumers compared to what we now have in Obamacare is the biggest unknown.
The duduk masalah isn't that they don't have a plan. The duduk masalah is that Republicans don't have a plan that will garner the required 60 votes in the U.S. Senate to become law. With 52 Republicans, they will need at least eight Democrats to join them. There simply are not the eight Democrats, or a guarantee that all 52 Republicans can be counted on, to ensure something like the general Republican replacement outline can become law.
Does This Mean That Republicans Will Retreat on Repeal Until Such Time as They Can Secure the Needed Democratic Support?
No.
First, Republicans are now in so deep on the repeal promise they can't retreat and maintain credibility with their Republican/Trump base.
Second, the reality is that Washington, DC wouldn't be able to find a bipartisan route to get past gridlock on such a complex and politically charged issue as Obamacare without facing hard deadlines for replacement.
Those that argue that Republicans should first have the replacement plan in place before proceeding make the assumption that without the imperative repeal/defund would create the two sides would be able to come to a bipartisan solution. In this Washington, DC? I just don't see that happening.
But Hasn't the Republican "Repeal and Replace" Strategy Now Put Them on the Defensive?
Yes.
Republicans are clearly losing the messaging battle with Democrats now on the offensive. A lack of a clear message about replacement creates a huge information gap that is easy to fill with bleak assessments for how the health insurance market will quickly collapse in the wake of Republican defunding.
Right now, Democrats are effectively, but disingenuously, arguing that repeal without a replacement will lead to millions of people losing their insurance. Disingenuous because Republicans have never intended to repeal without a seamless transition to replacement. But the Democratic arguments just had gasoline poured on them by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) My follow-up post at CNBC.com deals with how the two sides could come to a bipartisan compromise.
